US Election 2024: Will H-1B Visas Face More Restrictions if Donald Trump Wins?

The outcome of the 2024 US Presidential Election could significantly impact employment-based immigration, particularly for H-1B visa holders. A report by JM Financial highlights that if Donald Trump returns to office, his previous restrictive policies on H-1B and L-1 visas may resurface, potentially leading to increased scrutiny and higher denial rates.

During Trump’s first term, the denial rate for initial H-1B applications rose from 4% to 17%, and for L-1 visas, it increased from 12% to 28%. These changes had a notable effect on IT services firms that heavily rely on these visas. Trump's "Buy American and Hire American" executive order (E.O. 13788) played a central role in these visa restrictions.

However, the landscape has shifted since Trump's first presidency. Many IT companies have reduced their reliance on H-1B visas, with estimates showing the proportion of visa-dependent employees dropping from 65% to below 50%. This shift has allowed these firms to localize their workforce in the US, thereby insulating them from potential spikes in denial rates.

Trump’s administration also attempted to raise minimum wage requirements for H-1B holders, which would have priced some employers out of the market. Although these measures were blocked by the courts, they could indicate a potential return to more restrictive immigration policies under a second Trump term.

Despite these potential challenges, the report suggests that the impact on Indian IT service companies may be limited. On the other hand, a Kamala Harris presidency is expected to maintain the current immigration policies, providing more stability for high-skilled immigration.

Additionally, evolving legislative efforts, including bipartisan immigration reform bills, could play a significant role in shaping the future of high-skilled immigration in the US.