On Monday, the Indian rupee weakened by 3 paise, closing at a record low of 84.11 against the US dollar, following a downward trend that has persisted for several weeks. Earlier in the day, the rupee touched an all-time low of 84.12 before making a slight recovery. The local currency had closed at 84.08 on the previous Friday, but it has been under continuous pressure from foreign institutional investors.

In recent weeks, these global funds have offloaded over Rs 1.25 lakh crore from Indian equities, significantly contributing to the rupee's decline. After crossing the 84 mark on October 11, 2024, the currency has struggled to regain strength amid ongoing selling pressures.

On Monday, while the rupee briefly appreciated to 84.06 during early trading, it failed to maintain that momentum as foreign fund outflows and a slump in domestic equities weighed heavily on its performance. Anil Kumar Bhansali, head of treasury and executive director at Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP, noted that the rupee's low of 84.1125 was driven by continued equity sales from foreign portfolio investors purchasing dollars, while the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) intervened by selling dollars to curb the rupee's fall.

Forex traders expect the rupee to continue trading within a narrow range influenced by a strong dollar and rising crude oil prices. While the RBI's interventions may provide some support at lower levels, significant recovery appears challenging given the current trend.

Last week, the Indian market experienced low volatility and limited movement due to Diwali celebrations. The USDINR pair traded within a familiar range, with the RBI effectively capping the upside at the 84.10 level. However, this week brings increased activity with a lineup of initial public offerings (IPOs), notably Swiggy’s anticipated listing aiming to raise Rs 11,327 crore, which could lend some support to the rupee. Expectations suggest the USDINR pair may trade within a range of 83.80 to 84.20, with a downside bias.