The potential fall of Syria’s Assad regime poses a serious challenge for Russia’s foreign policy and military strategy. One of Moscow's most prized assets from its involvement in Syria has been its naval base at Tartus, located on the Mediterranean coast. However, recent developments, including the departure of Russian warships from Tartus, signal that Moscow's long-term access to this crucial facility is at risk. This would be a major blow to Russia, which has historically strived for access to “warm waters” to maintain its naval power and project force globally.

The Tartus base has been central to Russia’s operations in the Mediterranean since 2013, serving as a replenishment and repair station for Russian warships. It has allowed Russia to maintain a significant naval presence in the region, conducting exercises and countering NATO influence. Without it, Russia would face substantial logistical challenges. The closure of the Turkish Straits to Russian warships since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022 further complicates matters, preventing easy access to Russian bases in the Black Sea.

If Russia loses Tartus, its Mediterranean presence would be severely diminished, affecting its ability to project power and influence in the Middle East and beyond. This setback would also hamper Russia’s global military operations and security of its merchant shipping. The loss of this strategic base would not only damage Moscow's military reach but also dent its global credibility, particularly at a time when its image as a great power is already under pressure following setbacks in the Black Sea.

While Russia's war in Ukraine is unlikely to stop due to this loss, the loss of Tartus would deeply affect Moscow’s ability to assert itself as a global military power. It is a blow to both Russia's geopolitical influence and its prestige on the world stage, which it cannot afford ahead of future challenges, including the prospect of a second Trump presidency.