2024 US Elections: Post Mortem

If Biden had dropped out sooner, Kamala Harris would have won. If she had more time, she would have done better. Why did that not happen, and whose fault is it?

When Biden ran in 2020, he said he was a transitionary president, and many Democrats assumed that after two years, he would step down. Eight months after swearing in, Biden became unpopular and it was clear in the 2022 Midterm elections. Democrats lost the House and got control of the Senate. By that time, inflation was the main issue and voters started feeling that Republicans could control inflation better

Figure 1. How Popular Is Joe Biden? | FiveThirtyEight

To hide their underperformance, using their narrow victory in the Senate, Democrats and allied media did more to boost Biden’s image. By then his mental capabilities started to decline rapidly. Human biases didn’t allow Democrats to recognize that Biden was losing his mind. That gave false confidence to Biden and he decided to run for a second term. But the debate performance made it difficult to allied media to hid performance any longer. People could see and defending him would wipe out any remaining credibility that they have got. Given no other choice, the allied media exposed Biden in unison. The powers acted swiftly and to save campaign contributions they found a scapegoat – Kamala Harris. People who knew better – Gavin Newsom, Nancy Pelosi, … stayed away. They don’t want to be associated with a loser – Kamala Harris.

By the end of his first term, Biden was doing worse than any President that the current generation could remember. The contagion effect followed.

Now, coming to the second part – if Kamala had more time, could she have done better and won?

107 days. That is how much time Kamala had. The less talked about parts are:

• She had celebrities on her side: Beyonce, Taylor Swift, Bruce Springsteen, Clooney, Oprah …
• She had media: CNN, ABC, NBC, CBS, NYT, NPR, Washington Post, LA Times …
• She had $1.5 Billion  
• She had the largest staff (2500) and campaign offices (353).

The Atlantic commented that in North Carolina, dead deer outnumbered Trump campaign billboards by roughly a 2:1 ratio.

In the last week, Democrats knocked on over 600,000 doors and made over three million calls through 63,000 volunteer shifts.

The challenge was to use these resources strategically, efficiently, and effectively. The point is that her lack of time was more than compensated by the resources made available to her. If anything, more time would have allowed voters to see more of her - the word salads, the fake accents, the crazy laughter, the scripted and edited answers and the changing positions for political expediency.

107 days. That is how much time Kamala had. The less talked about parts are:

• She had celebrities on her side: Beyonce, Taylor Swift, Bruce Springsteen, Clooney, Oprah …
• She had media: CNN, ABC, NBC, CBS, NYT, NPR, Washington Post, LA Times …
• She had $1.5 Billion  
• She had the largest staff (2500) and campaign offices (353).

The Atlantic commented that in North Carolina, dead deer outnumbered Trump campaign billboards by roughly a 2:1 ratio.

In the last week, Democrats knocked on over 600,000 doors and made over three million calls through 63,000 volunteer shifts.

The challenge was to use these resources strategically, efficiently, and effectively. The point is that her lack of time was more than compensated by the resources made available to her. If anything, more time would have allowed voters to see more of her - the word salads, the fake accents, the crazy laughter, the scripted and edited answers and the changing positions for political expediency.