As the November 5, 2024, elections approach, all eyes are on the evolving political landscape in the United States. Former President Donald Trump is currently leading in the latest predictions, particularly in all seven critical swing states, according to a recent poll conducted by AtlasIntel.

The survey, which included nearly 2,500 likely voters in the US, revealed that about 49% of respondents would cast their votes for Trump. This positions the Republicans with a narrow 1.8% lead over his Democratic opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris. The poll was conducted on the first two days of November and predominantly featured female respondents.

Focus on Swing States

Swing states, often regarded as battlegrounds, play a pivotal role in determining the outcome of presidential elections. In the latest findings, Trump is favored to win in all key swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

• Arizona: Trump boasts a significant lead of 51.9% to Harris's 45.1%.
• Nevada: The poll indicates Trump with 51.4% compared to Harris's 45.9%.
• North Carolina: Trump holds a 50.4% lead, while Harris garners 46.8%.

In the context of US presidential elections, states are categorized into three types: Red States, where Republicans have consistently prevailed; Blue States, dominated by Democrats; and Swing States, which are highly competitive and often decided by razor-thin margins. For instance, in the 2020 election, Joe Biden won Arizona by a mere 10,000 votes.

Interestingly, a Reuters/Ipsos poll published on October 29 showed a different narrative, with Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump by a slim margin of 44% to 43%. Despite Harris maintaining a lead in every Reuters/Ipsos poll since her candidacy began in July, her advantage has been shrinking since late September.

As the countdown to the elections continues, the dynamics in these swing states will be crucial in shaping the final outcome, highlighting the ongoing battle between the Republican and Democratic candidates.