On Christmas, an Embraer 190 aircraft operated by Azerbaijan Airlines crashed near Aktau city in Kazakhstan, leading to the deaths of 38 people out of the 67 on board. The flight had originally departed from Baku, Azerbaijan, headed for Grozny, Russia, but was diverted when it was unable to land in Grozny due to dense fog. The aircraft, rerouted over the Caspian Sea, crashed in an open field near Aktau after encountering difficulties. 29 passengers survived the crash. Azerbaijan Airlines, in an official statement, cited "external physical and technical interference" as the cause of the disaster, though the exact nature of the interference remains unclear.

In the days following the crash, speculation about the cause of the disaster intensified. Reports suggested that a Russian surface-to-air missile might have been accidentally fired at the aircraft, causing it to veer off course and crash. The missile theory was based on the aircraft's unexpected deviation and the timeline of the crash. However, this theory was quickly rejected by the Russian government. The Kremlin denied any missile involvement, labeling the reports as speculative and warning against drawing conclusions without evidence. Despite the rejection, the missile theory has continued to stir debate, with questions about whether a technical malfunction or external attack was responsible.

As the investigation into the crash continues, both technical and external factors are being considered. Authorities are reviewing flight data, black box recordings, and other evidence to determine whether the crash was caused by a mechanical failure, human error, or external interference. The tragic loss of life and the surviving passengers' harrowing experience have drawn global attention, with the aviation community closely monitoring the investigation's findings. The conflicting reports, including the missile speculation, highlight the complexity of understanding what led to this devastating accident.